Romain Guy, a former Sun intern now known for his involvement with the Aerith demo shown at JavaOne and interviewee on JavaPosse, has an interesting blog post on his site about the current state of the Java desktop support.
He makes an interesting point that the majority of Java developers in the US are Swing developers, not Java EE, and yet EE gets all the attention (possibly because this is the space where the big buck projects are, both for developers and tool vendors). I find this an interesting statistic, but I’m not sure where he gets this information. Maybe it’s just because I work in an EE world, but I rarely come across any Java developers who have experience with Swing.
Since option b) is less likely to occur without the backing of a major company to push this into the mainstream, for the short term I think we will see an increasing number of Swing projects. However, the possibility that some company (or open source effort) will release a ‘rich client super platform’ does sound like an interesting option…